August 8, 2011
BY ARMENAK MINASYANTS (SECRETARY OF THE IPWG, AEGEE-YEREVAN)
As some of our newsletter followers and readers may have already noticed, each time I am trying to bring a lot of detailed information about different processes which are taking place around the world and besides of just bringing to my reader just facts and information I am also trying to make my personal comments to the events which have place in our newsletter. But this time I am just going to make analysis of some international political phenomenons and try just to express my positions towards some urgent problems, as well I am going to make little historical reference.
We Need Changes, Changes, Changes!!!
“The world has changed after September 11” with this phrase started his speech the US President George W. Bush after the attacks on World Trade Center in 2001. 10 years have passed after that tragedy, but this phrase has not lost its actuality. We all are evident of big geopolitical changes which are taking place throughout the world. The centers of geopolitical power are changing; the non-governmental actors of the international relations and politics are becoming stronger and more powerful, the voices of the nations who are struggling for the place under the sun are getting louder and louder, the violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms, as well as the norms of the international and humanitarian law are becoming more obvious. All the above mentioned things could be referred to many states around the world but especially to the states of the Arabic World. Once, in his masterpiece “Clash of Civilizations”, Samuel P. Huntington stated; “The 21st century would be the century of the Muslim wars, which would be conditionally divided into two groups; first group, wars that would be initiated by the Muslims against the other religious groups, and the second group, which would be the most dangerous for all other nations and civilizations, wars between the Muslims”. We may say that Huntington even in 1996 has very rightly predicted the processes which we see today. For all of us it is obvious that in many Muslim states exist many problems concerning different fields of life. There are so many problems that it is even difficult for experts to state which of them has the most priority. The problem of decentralization of state authority, not adequate approaches of the governments towards economical and social problems, bureaucratization of judicial and civil system, not effective remedies for the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms may be considered so. This are only the main issues with which faces almost every Middle East government. It is easy to say that structural changes to the governmental system would solve the most of these problems, but in general only legislative changes could not bring security and stability to the Middle East region.
For many years countries of the Middle East have been ruled by the authoritarian regimes, each of them have established its own rules of the game and non of that regimes is going to resign without struggle. There are lot examples of such regimes; Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon. In all above mentioned states democratization processes are becoming stronger and stronger day by day. In all this states that processes are different and are not similar to each other. The year 2011 has brought many political developments in the region and that developments now are reshaping not only the region but the whole geopolitical situation in the world. Today the most important questions to which we shall answer are; why suddenly this processes have started, who have opened the “Pandora Box”, how long would this processes take place, what influence would have these processes on the global security, and at last, the most important question to be answered, who would rule and take power in that revolutionary states? Would we be the evident of the clash of civilizations?
I just hope that none of us would be witness of such clash and none of us would ever feel the threat of that clash. Surely, I also believe that one day all authoritarian governments would leave the political stage and real democracies based on the rule of law and fundamental freedoms would rise like a phoenix from the fire. Anyway I could not remember the situation in Syria when I am discussing such theme. As I have promised I am not going to defend or to blame anybody or to bring any facts to the dash. I just will and hope that authorities in Syria would find the necessary political will and will stop the violence…
This date has a special meaning at least for China, Russia, Georgia and the people of the self declared state of South Ossetia and billiards of people of that states who during that night got very various feelings. Let’s discuss them all separately. For example in China, the whole population through the TV was watching the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games which was held in Beijing. In Russia, people were sitting at their homes and were also watching the Opening Ceremony. In Georgia the situation was always the same, just with one reservation; some people were not sleeping at night because of the move of heavy military technique and soldiers in their cities. But the situation was cordially different in the South Ossetia. The population of that tiny self declared republic is only about 100000 people and during that night felt the scare of death and massacre, heard the sounds of fire of the heavy military technique, lost everything during one night.
Yes, yes, you are not mistaken during that night when the world was enjoying wonderful show coming from Beijing, the President of Georgia (pay attention please that I am mentioning just the President and not the whole state or Georgians) initiated an adventurous and unnecessary military operation in that tiny enclave. As I have promised I am not going to bring here facts, statistics or not going to retell you the whole story of those horrible events. I consider that it is not necessary, because each of you has its own approach to this topic. As a prelude I would just state that this bloody operation is the newest one in the history of the South Caucasus. The reshape of the map of the South Caucasus initiated by the Saakashvili regime failed and independence of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia was recognized by Russia who participated in whole military actions. So, again avoiding the interpretation of this issue I would like to summarize everything. The 5 Day War brought to the peoples of Georgia, Russia and self-declared South Ossetia thousands of deaths, destroyed cities and communications. Once again the War showed that today any conflict shall not be solved by the military measures or means. This shall be a good lesson to all conflicting states around the world. Any escalation of the conflict could get adequate answer; its violation of the provisions of the international humanitarian law would get punishment.
So, I, as an Armenian, hope that once our northern neighbors would be able to restore peace and stability in their relations and we would never, I repeat never, see such wars in our region which is absolutely European oriented and is aiming to join the big European family.
(This part of the article is dedicated to all civilians who died during those 5 days, rest in peace to them all…)Author : ipwg